DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Trend Daily Chart
21 HR EMA
55 HR EMA
Trend Hourly Chart
13 HR RSI
14 HR DMI
Choppy consolidation to continue
0.9802 – Apr’s high (24th)
0.9783 – May’s high (07)
0.9760 – Mon’s high
0.9699 – Tue’s low
0.9678 – Mon’s low
0.9666 – Last Tue’s n Wed’s low
USD/CHF – 0.9707.. Dlr traded narrowly in Asia n Europe on Tue as market focus was on other G7 currencies. Price met selling interest at 0.9728 n hit session lows of 0.9699 in NY morning b4 staging a minor bounce to 0.9728.
On the bigger picture, dlr’s rally fm 2018 31-month trough of 0.9188 to a 2-year peak at 1.0238 in Apr (2019) confirms downtrend fm 2016 6-year peak at 1.0344 has made a low there. Having said that, despite fall fm 1.0027 (Oct) to 0.9614, then brief break of 2018 low at 0.9188 (Feb) to a 4-1/2 year bottom at 0.9184 in Mar, subsequent rally to 0.9903 on safe-haven usd buying suggests low is made. Dlr’s decline to 0.9503, then erratic rise to 0.9802 in Apr but weakness to 0.9590 (May) suggests choppy trading below 0.9903 would continue. Dlr’s bounce fm 0.9590 to 0.9783 in May has retained upside bias for re-test of 0.9802, abv would head twd 0.9903 in late May/Jun. Below 0.9590 risks 0.9503.
Today, despite Mon’s brief rise fm 0.9678 to 0.9760 due to rally in eur/chf cross on risk-on trade, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading inside 0.9783-0.9666 range would continue with near term downside bias, reckon 0.9666 sup would hold n yield rebound. Abv 0.9760 would re-test 0.9783, then 0.9802
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